The American League should be extremely competitive, with the top 4 teams all being capable of finishing in 1st or 2nd place. Kansas City seems to have the fewest holes, but Seattle, Oakland, and Toronto have more than enough to hold their own. It will come down to the Managing, as well as who gets the breaks in the closer games. Here is our predicted order of finish:
1st Place: KANSAS CITY ROYALS
The defending World Series Champions return to the field almost as strong as in 2022. They are the most complete team in the league. Aaron Judge is of course the centerpiece of this team, but there are several strong supporting roles in this lineup – Trey Turner, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna, and Lourdes Gurriel. The lineup also features impeccable defensive abilities, boasting several Gold Glovers, especially around the infield – Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and Judge, with Turner not far behind. That said, this lineup has lost quite a bit of power from last season’s squad, not to mention the gaping hole that Marcus Semien’s departure has caused. In fact, 2nd base is the weakest spot in the lineup on this team, as KC will rely on a group effort amongst Bryson Stott, Cavan Biggio, and Aldemys Diaz.
On the pitching front, KC has 5 strong starters, led by Joe Musgrove and rookie Spencer Strider, backed up by veterans Alex Cobb and Taijuan Walker, as well as a return to health by Luis Severino. And the pen is still strong, but does lack the depth it had last year. Closer Jordan Romano and his sidekick Craig Kimbrel will navigate the late innings, with help from lefties Jose Alvarado and Andrew Chafin, as well as Tanner Houck.
This KC team has the league’s only true difference-maker in Judge, enough of a supporting cast to score runs, and top tier starting pitching to get them to the set-up men. KC’s weakness is a lack of depth – they will have to turn to weaker relievers when their starter gets knocked out early, and that will cost them games. A secon concern is how right-handed KC’s starting 9 hitters are – Matt Olson is the only legitimate LH bat in the lineup, any other LH bats will be bench players earning a start against a tough righty. So this team does have blemishes, and is no lock to finish atop the league.
2nd Place: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners greatest strength will be their bullpen, which is the deepest and most intimidating in the league. They boast 3 legit closers in Clay Holmes, Gregory Soto, and Scott Barlow, while their set-up men may be even better than the closers – Jason Adam and Evan Phillips. Colin McHugh and Brad Hand are long men on this team, but would be high leverage, 8th inning guys on most any other team. The rotation is good enough, but not much better. Logan Webb can hold his own against any other team’s ace, but there is a drop-off in Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell as #2 and #3 guys. Drew Smyly could be in trouble as a left-hander in the AL, while Kyle Gibson can hold teams to 3 runs over 5 innings and then turn it over to the pen.
The offense is built around Adley Rutschman, Christian Walker, Manny Machado, Juan Soto, and Brandon Drury, although the latter will hurt the team on defense when he is in there. Guys like Ian Happ, Alex Verdugo, and Josh Bell offer on-base with little power. But, this team does have enough on offense to score more runs than their opposition. One concern is the extreme splits some of their hitters experience, that will allow opposition teams to pitch around certain guys in clutch situations, like Rutschman and his weakness vs lefties, same for Walker, and Bell vs righties. Seattle’s defense will be hit and miss – Walker and Machado are Gold Glove caliber players, as is SS Julio Mateo, but it remains to be seen whether Mateo will play at SS, or an offense-first player like David Fletcher or Drury. Same for 2nd base. And the outfield defense will be mediocre as well.
Seattle’s formula for success will be simple – ask 5-6 innings from the starting pitcher, and hand a lead or tie over to the bullpen, and don’t forget to insert all of your top defensive players into the lineup at that point, including Gold Glovers Trent Grisham, Mateo, and Mike Yazstremski. Whether the pen can withstand the demands that will be placed on it to perform all season long in constant high leverage situations where one mistake could cost the game, will be the test.
3rd Place: Oakland A’s
The A’s are always in the thick of the race, and this year will be no exception. However, this A’s team does seem a bit more thin on talent than usual. They do have their stars as well leading them in offense – Jose Ramirez, JT Realmuto, and Dansby Swanson – and a couple of nice complimentary pieces in outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Teoscar Hernandez, although the latter two just don’t get on base often enough to be impact. And then the offense really drops off, with holes at 1st and 2nd base, and depth in the OF. The team defense is average at worst, slightly above average when all of their defensive wizards are in the lineup.
The starting rotation features a legit ace in Dylan Cease and a strong #2 in rookie Joe Ryan, but it quickly falls off from there – Frankie Montas, Nick Pivetta and Matt Manning are not Championship-caliber pitchers by any means. The pen is second-strongest to Seattle’s, as the A’s also boast 3 closers in Ryan Helsley, Devin Williams, and David Robertson. Add to that Jhoan Duran and Trevor Stephan, and they will be tough to come back on if you find yourself trailing after 5 or 6 innings. But, there isnt enough depth there in games where the starter gets knocked out early, and with the state of Oakland’s bottom of the rotation, that should happen somewhat regularly.
The A’s road to success is getting quality starts from their #3 to #5 starters, so they can scratch out just enough runs themselves in order to turn to their pen with a 1-run lead in the 6th. Depending on how often this situation presents itself, they too run the risk of burning out their pen, although we don’t believe that will be an issue. The lack of depth in the rotation and the pen, coupled with the drop-off in offense between its top hitters and bottom hitters, means Oakland is destined to finish in the middle of the pack.
4th Place: Toronto Blue Jays
There isn’t a ton of difference between Oakland and Toronto. The main difference is although Toronto’s rotation is steadier from #1 to #5, the Jays lack that true ace. And, Toronto’s pen isn’t as deep, although the Jays do have some nice bullpen pieces. Also, some of Toronto’s best pitchers are left-handed, which we know gets taken advantage of in the American League and all of its powerful right-handed bats. But the Jays are no slouches either. Their rotation of Aaron Nola, Marcus Stroman, Robbie Ray, Michael Kopech, and rookie Nick Lodolo is the type that can get a team on a roll by stringing together multiple quality starts in a row. The pen is certainly a weak spot…their 2 closers are mediocre in Josh Hader and Taylor Rogers, while their only true high-leverage 8th inning guys are Alexis Diaz and Alex Vesia, the latter being a southpaw loses some of his lustre. In a league where starters no longer go 7 or 8 innings, it will be a constant challenge for the Jays trying to nurse some of these slim leads to the 9th.
Toronto’s offense is better than Oakland’s, but is it enough to make up for the pitching weaknesses. Will Smith may be the best hitting catcher in the league, and is paired with Nolan Arenado, Julio Rodriguez, and Byron Buxton in the middle of the Toronto order. Complimentary pieces include Cedric Mullins, Anthony Rizzo, and Manny Margot against southpaws. The Toronto defense is above-average, although Toronto will have a gaping offensive and defensive hole at SS and 2nd base.
If the Jays had a bit more bullpen, we could see them leapfrogging Oakland in the standings, but it just seems every close lead Toronto nurses will be in jeopardy until the final out is recorded, and that will hurt in the win column.
5th Place: Boston Red Sox
The Sox strength is its starting rotation, the best in the American League. Max Scherzer, Tony Gonsolin, Cristian Javier, Michael Wacha, and Adam Wainwright will keep Boston in most of its games. The problem with the Sox is their bullpen, and their lack of hitting. Pulling a starter will mean you have to bring in a Michael Fulmer, or a Kyle Finnegan/Dylan Floro, and in the bullpen-rich A.L., that is just not good enough. Even the Jays who will be sweating every lead have much more in their pen than the Sox do.
On offense, there is very little power here, so forget about riding a formula of strong starting pitching coupled with 3-run homers. None of Boston’s hitters would do any better than batting at the bottom of the top 4 teams’ batting order…there is no slugger here, no game-breaker. Every run Boston scores this season will have been earned, and then some. Boston’s middle of the order will consist of singles-hitters like DJ Lemehieu, Tim Anderson, Seiya Suzuki, and their likely clean-up hitter in Adolis Garcia.
The Red Sox do have a path to squeezing into a playoff spot by making the top 4 – but that will hinge on its starting pitchers delivering the way most expect, and, getting timely hitting in order to score just enough runs to win games. Their closer, rookie Camilo Doval, should manage to save most of his chances, the only question is how many leads will come his way this season.
6th Place: Baltimore Orioles
Like most expansion teams, the O’s roster is loaded more with future-potential players than with impact guys. But, there are some tools here. The offense will be built around rookie Alejandro Kirk, Nate Lowe, Randy Arozarena, and Anthony Santander. That’s a pretty good start. The depth does drop off substantially from there, but guys like Patrick Wisdom will hit homers at a regular clip, while guys like Jonathan India, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Austin Hayes, and Oscar Gonzalez will frustrate the opposition. Unfortunately, the defense will be the worst in the league.
Pitching-wise, closer Ryan Pressly is the star chip…any 9th inning lead this team gets its hands on should be a win. Southpaw Amir Garrett will help, and veteran Steve Cishek can give this team some scoreless innings in high-leverage situations. But, this pen lacks the dominant arms that Seattle possesses, and most certainly lacks the depth. Finding arms to pitch the innings will be a constant challenge. The rotation is “okay” for the first 3 spots in Nathan Eovaldi, Tyler Mahle, and Mitch Keller, but does fall off the table on the back end.
Rookie skipper Andrew recognizes that this is a learning year, and is excited for the challenge of learning the finer points of managing, and already has several improving players to look forward to for next year.
SUMMARY
It should be a competitive and fun season in the AL. Here are the predicted standings:
Kansas City 36-19
Seattle 34-21
Oakland 31-24
Toronto 29-26
Boston 20-35
Baltimore 15-40