The National League seems wide open this year, other than the San Francisco Giants, who appear to be head and shoulders above every other club. But this parity means that any team can vault up or down in the standings. Here are our predicted order of finish:
- SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
San Fran is loaded with pitching, even more so that the LA Dodgers, who are top heavy but dont have the depth that SF has. The Giants have rookie George Kirby as their potential #5 starter, that’s pretty good! Of course the rotation is anchored by ace Julio Urias, followed closely by Carlos Rodon, Drew Rasmussen, and Logan Gilbert. The pen is equally super-charged, as short men JP Feyereisen, Andres Munoz, Rafael Montero, and AJ Minter will hold leads until the 9th when Kenley Jansen takes over. The hitting is not overly intimidating, but then either is any other NL team’s offense. But solid on-base catalysts like Jose Trevino, Ty France, Mark Canha, and Luis Robert will try to protect Mookie Betts, the pride and joy of this team. Will be interesting to see how much home run hitter Giancarlo Stanton contributes. This team doesn’t need a lot of offense with the pitching they possess.
2. LOS ANGELES DODGERS
LA can start the major leagues’ top 2 starters in opponent’s batting average in Justin Verlander and Tristin McKenzie. Kevin Gausman, Cal Quantril, and Freddie Peralta are good, but not San Francisco-good. The pen lacks depth. Felix Bautista is money as the closer, but the set-up crew consists of Anthony Bass, Eli Morgan, and Caleb Thielbar, after which LA will be mixing and matching trying to gain the platoon advantage. Offensively, LA has some standout hitters in Yandy Diaz & Austin Riley, but it quickly drops off a cliff after that. Stephen Kwan will get on base, Nico Hoerner is a Gold Glover at SS, and Tommy Edman can run, but those do not add up to a very prolific offense. LA does have top defensive players at almost every position on the field, so they will hope to win a lot of low scoring games.
3. CINCINNATI REDS
The Reds are an interesting team – they have some front line players as do most teams – but they also have some projects and depth issues. On the rotation side, Max Fried and Brandon Woodruff lead the rotation, while Justin Steele and Reid Detmers can be contributors but it remains to be seen whether the fact they are left-handed will hurt them in the NL this season. The late inning, high-leverage is the best in the league, as Edwin Diaz and David Bednar have the 8th and 9th innings locked down. Alex Lange, Phil Bickford, and AJ Puk will be working the 6th and 7th innings. Offensively, Cinci’s top hitter is perennial batting champ Jeff McNeil, but what a huge dropoff after that! Cal Raleigh is all-or-nothing, Jeremy Pena is defense-only, and save George Springer, the rest of the OF is comprised of bench players like Chas McCormick, Leody Taveras, and Jurickson Profar. Scoring will be a challenge for Cinci as well.
4. PITTSBURGH PIRATES
The hallmarks of what made Pittsburgh a perennial power are just not there these days. This team has many holes all over the field. The front half of the rotation has some very good, but not great, starters in Shane Bieber, Merrill Kelly, and Jesus Lazardo. But Zack Plesac and Rich Hill on the back end is not ideal. The pen is also lacking in depth. Closer Emmanuel Clase is one of the best, but the only reliable set-up men are an aging Hector Neris, rookie Brock Burke, and oft-injured James Karinchak and Jose Leclerc. Offensively, there are a few threats here, starting with 2 catchers who should both be DH’ing in Mitch Garver and William Contreras. Jose Abreau, Taylor Ward, and Kyle Schwarber (catcher/DH #3 on this team) are the other threats. Compared to the teams predicted above Pittsburgh, the Pirates seem to have a bit more pop and quality depth than the others, but that offsets their disadvantage on the pitching side, hence why we picked them for 4th place.
5. SAN DIEGO PADRES
The Padres could find a way to make it into the top 4, but a lot would have to go their way. They have a true ace in Sandy Alcantara, and Chris Bassitt & Luis Garcia are decent, but then it totally drops off to Jake Junis and Chad Kuhl. On the bullpen side, they do have some arms that can take any 6th inning lead home – Jimmy Herget, Bryan Abreau, Yency Almonte, and closer Liam Hendriks are solid late inning options. But the depth is lacking, so any time the Padres are down by 2-3 runs halfway through the game, they will think twice and three times about expending their high leverage arms in a game they are trailing, and therefore will go to long men who will most likely give up a few extra runs. Those situations can be the difference between making the playoffs and not. Offensively, the Pola Bear Pete Alonso is back with his reliable power and walks, Brendan Donovan can get on base at a high clip, rookie Michael Harris is a star in the making, and Bryce Harper will DH, but beyond those guys, again, a huge drop-off in offensive talent.
6. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
The expansion Phillies have some nice pieces, but in the competitive NL, will it be enough? Alek Manoah and Brady Singer will keep them in the game, while Hunter Greene and Jeffrey Springs are solid in the middle of the order. Closer Daniel Bard is lights-out, but it gets messy in a hurry as we go down the bullpen depth, from Sam Hentges, to John Brebbia, to Hunter Strickland, to Emilio Pagan…you get the message. The Phils will be challenged to stop an opposing team’s rally. Offensively, Joc Pederson is the best they have, Jose Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Tommy Pham, and Dylan Carlson will be counted on to help score runs. So as you can see, the Phillies will be hard-pressed to compete, especially when they have their back end of the rotation starting.